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Sunday, April 18, 2021

Bihar Elections 2020: After LJP’s exit from the NDA, what could be the outcome?

The upcoming Bihar Assembly polls will be quite the spectacle as it can be anticipated. With the sudden decision of Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) Chirag Paswan to go solo and not to compete the Bihar Assembly elections under the authority of officeholder Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, has the capability of modifying poll conditions. The choice is a fascinating one as the LJP drove by Chirag Paswan is probably going to set up applicants against Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha, however not against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been an ally of the LJP. Indeed, the LJP said that its point is a BJP-driven government in Bihar, giving rise to several ascend to claims that the move has been planned by the BJP to get ahead of the JDU in the upcoming contest.

Now this standoff between Paswan and Kumar, who have earlier been under the same umbrella could give rise to several decisive outcomes and alterations in the state. Let’s look at after LJP’s exit from the NDA, what could be the outcome and who else could come into the picture during the upcoming assembly elections.

 

Chirag Paswan’s exit, what could it mean?

A day after walking out of the National Democratic Alliance targeting Bihar chief minister, LJP president Chirag Paswan said that he wants a BJP-led government in the state as he no longer trusts the incumbent office-bearer Nitish Kumar. “I’ve said repeatedly that I want to have a BJP led government in my state because I don’t trust the Chief Minister anymore. I really want a true double engine government in Bihar,” Paswan told News18 in an interview. The LJP president, surprisingly, also appealed to the masses against voting for Kumar’s JD(U) and apparently claimed that an alliance of his party and the BJP is likely to come to power in Bihar after the Assembly polls. In an open letter, Paswan told the voters of Bihar that “Every vote cast in favour of a JD(U) candidate will condemn your children to forced migration” and asked the public to vote for his party candidates during the polls.

The LJP on October 4 decided to put up its candidates against the JD(U) citing “ideological differences” with the party and stated that under Kumar’s leadership their grievances were not being met adequately. This was also to assert that it will not accept the current CM’s leadership of the NDA. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is the principal member of the NDA, has already announced Kumar as the leader of the bloc in the state. And this sudden move has also left them baffled to some extent.

“This is the most decisive moment in the history of the state of Bihar. It is a question of life and death of the 12 crore people of the state and we have no time to lose. The road ahead is not easy for the LJP but we will fight and win too,” Paswan said. All LJP MLAs will work under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he added.

In response to this sudden change in Paswan’s decision, the JD(U), has been taken aback. The party has reacted strongly with indignation and issued a statement that could prove detrimental for their relationship later if they ever want to be allies again. “He has undertaken his political journey under the shadow of his father. He has no standing of his own. He has no understanding of the issues that matter on the ground. It is a fact that in dynasty politics, people end up harboring huge ambitions without making many contributions”, JD(U) spokesman Rajiv Ranjan Prasad said. Prasad added that Paswan junior will be facing “his real test in the Bihar elections. The mandate will make him realize how much support he enjoys at the grassroots level. The people of Bihar are not going to be swayed by his tall talk. The development roadmap prepared by Nitish Kumar, who has transformed Bihar is without parallels,” he stated.

 

What is kind of support LJP has?

Moving on from this, what kind or amount of support does the LJP have actually in the state that they could bank on? The major vote bank or the people they can rely on is the Dusadh or Paswan Dalit community. They are viewed as more politically prevailing contrasted with other Dalit communities. Dusadhs represent around five to six percent of the absolute populace in Bihar and approximately 30-40 percent of the state’s Dalit populace. The ongoing review by CVoter said that 6.5 percent of respondents said that they want to see LJP founder Ramvilas Paswan be the CM. This may extensively relate to the LJP’s guaranteed base in the state. In spite of the fact that moderately more grounded in the southern and focal areas of Bihar, the LJP has a presence over the state, which makes it a risky spoiler and valuable partner for any development. The LJP challenged the last two races in union with greater gatherings. It battled from 75 seats in 2010 in partnership with RJD and 42 seats in 2015 in coalition with the BJP and littler gatherings like HAM and RLSP. In this manner, it is difficult to learn the LJP’s essence in each seat or the harm it can cause since it is probably going to challenge in any event at least 100 seats. Notwithstanding, what is known is that since it turned into a reliable BJP partner in 2014, the support it used to have among Muslims has gone down while its worthiness among Upper Castes has expanded barely. LJP allies guarantee that Chirag Paswan has an allure among youth cutting across caste lines. LJP’s choice could likewise assist it with charming small-scale parties like Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, that haven’t yet come out in support of either NDA or UPA.

 

Lalu’s son for CM?

Apart from this, there is one other person who could play a key role in the elections. Will former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav have the option to turn into the leader of the state this time? 31-year-old Tejashwi is currently the head of RJD. The RJD has quite become his brand more than representing his father, whose reputation was already at stake as he went to jail on corruption charges. However, to create his own identity, Tejashwi also apologized for all the mistakes his parents might have done during their tenure. Tejashwi had said: “Well, we were in power for 15 years, but we were not in government, we were small. Even then our government remained. No one can deny that social justice did not happen under the rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav. In 15 years, if we had any deficiency or mistake, we apologize for it. So, we could possibly look at him as a strong contender in the upcoming polls.

 

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